Net Zero Emissions Scenario by 2050
A study by the Center on Global Energy Policy reveals that the production , processing and supply of critical minerals may not align with the rapid rise in conversion of internal combustion engines in electrically powered vehicles (EV’s) and usage of electrically powered batteries in vehicles . Additionally the rapidly expanding grid of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies may impede the complete move over to net zero emissions target (NZE) by the year 2050.
Assumptions of Battery Chemistry
One assumption is that the sale of vehicles powered by internal combustion engine ceases by the year 2035 and EV’s sales touches 100 % by 2035 and 100 % of all vehicle on the roads by 2050. Another relevant assumption would be that the basic chemistry of electrically charged batteries remains consistent and no innovative breakthrough takes place till the year 2050 of minerals used in batteries including lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements .The scenario of inventory of EV stock and mineral intensity per vehicle and extraction, production and processing of mineral ore deposits across regions and countries may throw up unforeseen challenges.
Solar Wind Minerals Demand
A surge is anticipated of PV capacity from around 740 gigawatt (GW) to almost 15,000 GW by the year 2050 . Such enhancement of PV may double the corresponding mineral requirement for solar PV panels production .The growth in wind capacity is likely to be gradual from 740 GW to around 8,000 GW at the same time doubling the mineral requirement for wind turbine manufacturing in lesser quantity.
Source:
Center on Global Energy Policy COLUMBIA/ SIPA
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