Variable Wind patterns complicating Navigation

The blockage of the Suez Canal highlighted the vulnerability of global shipping and freight logistics to climatic changes. Extreme heat dries soil ,vegetation becomes scarce ,winds mobilize sand grains and ensuing sandstorms display strong and variable wind patterns complicating navigation in the passage of the Suez Canal .In the last decade on more then three occasions shipping operations have been disrupted in the Suez Canal. At time of grounding the vessel Ever Given in March 2021 was sailing at 15 knots ,instead of the permitted speed of 10 knots , a record national heat wave was recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and in Egypt generating  severe sandstorms which reduced visibility in the Canal and is one of the causes attributed to the grounding.

Inconsistent Wind and Heat Patterns

Air at 500 millibars at the rarified height of 18,000 feet depicts amplified and wavy jet stream patterns responsible for turbulence for aircraft. The 2011 and 2012 heat waves in the US caused multiple train derailments as the railroad tracks got warped in the excessive heat and food , chemical and freight logistics in the US supply chain got disrupted.

Panama Canal may be the next Chokepoint for Freight

The rainy season in Panama which usually commences in March is delayed resulting in reduced water flows and decreasing river levels on account of which  the Panama Canal Authority announced dry season transit adjustments for Neopanamax vessels . Such adjustments reduce draft of ships  granted passage though the Panama Canal which reduce cargo volumes and ultimately increases freight costs   The Panama Canal Authority has assiduously  embarked on a $ 2 billion water management project to ensure sustained shipping operations in the Panama Canal.Egypt is undergoing an economic crisis but will have to divert Suez Canal revenues to combat the impact of climate change. The looming threat of rising sea levels may challenge integrity of port operations and coastal storage infrastructure and this scenario is becoming a reality. Rise in sea level due to the rate at which the Arctic is warming is likely to impact on critical port infrastructure becoming increasingly exposed to vulnerability of storm surges and sea swells. Maritime countries need to initiate a debate on climate change as the discussion has mainly been restricted to coastal areas and flooding of rivers.

By Nadir Mumtaz