U.S. – Iran Ceasefire Collapse Benefits India

India’s annual exports for the financial year 2026 are approximately 61.43 million metric tonnes of petroleum products worth about $45 billion annually. 2) Domestic consumption high of 243 million tonnes. 3) Annual export earnings for refined petroleum products generally range between $44 billion and $ 85 billion depending on global crude pricing . 4) Exports refined petroleum to Netherlands, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Singapore, the United States, Australia and parts of Africa and Asia 5) India ships around 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) or 246 million liters of light and middle distillates . 6) Fuel export volumes rose from 866,000 bpd after the Strait of Hormuz crisis hit crude supplies to India and the rest of Asia as there was a renewed rally in refining margins after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed. Indian refiners ramped up refined petroleum to capture soaring margins amid tight Asian fuel markets.

Credit;PNSC  Profit by Pakistan

Russian-Indian Trade Prospers Despite US Sanctions

7) India became the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 8) Swiss based trader Vitol is a major buyer of refined products from Indian refined diesel and gasoline, for discharge in the United Arab Emirates and West Africa. 9) India meets about 88 % of its crude oil and 51 % of its gas needs through imports, which shows how important the shipping industry is for the country’s energy security. 10) The freight cost forms a significant part of the Hydrocarbon import bill.

Oil marketing companies pay around 5 dollars per barrel to transport crude from the United States and about 1.2 dollars from the Middle East. One barrel of crude oil contains 159 liters or and it costs almost $ 0.03 per liter to transport crude from USA to India and $ 0.008 per liter of crude from the Middle East to India .

Crude Oil Storage & Japan

Gulf Oil producers venturing Eastwards instead of Westwards for additional Crude Oil Storage?

According to Reuters Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichimay hinted that Japan may fund the crude stockpiles levering its $ 10 billion Power Asia program. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that its support equals ASEAN’s annual crude oil imports and Japan may channel $10 billion aid via JBIC, NEXI and others to support Asian energy procurement in order to stabilise supply chains amid Middle East tensions and tight ​Southeast Asian stockpiles.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may collaborate with Japan to expand its existing crude inventories roughly tenfold from around 8 million barrels .The KSA refinery Aramco also stores 5.3 million barrels in South Korea which has emergency purchase rights.

Japan – 200 days of oil reserves
Thailand – 61 days
Philippines – 53
Vietnam – 30
China – 60

Pakistan’s state owned marketing company (PSO) holds the largest fuel storage capacity at 45 % of the entire storage of the country at 1,135 KMT . As per industry sources Pakistan’s commercial crude storage is around 14 days and till such time it enhances storage its negogiating strength is less , despite being a client importing Fossil Fuel annually of almost $ 16.7 billion . Pakistan’s LPG storage capacity is around 1 % of the requirement and LNG storage capacity is for 2 days only .

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is slashing prices to lure Asian buyers, offering discounts of as much as $ 5/bbl . Will Pakistan will be a beneficiary ?

US ” Secondary Sanctions ” Bite Entities supplying Iran

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) under Operation Economic Outcast on 8th September, 2026 sanctioned 36 targets for supporting Iran’s aviation sector, which it claims the Iranian regime uses to transport weapons, personnel and illicit military use cargo.

Recently Mahan Air received B-777 aircraft reportedly diverted through United Arab Emirates (UAE) , Oman and Türkiye-based Sky Phoenix with the US alleging that these were front companies serving as intermediaries and transferring U.S origin aircraft shipments, including unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components and industrial equipment destined for Iran .

These aircraft received temporary registrations from UAE . Malaysia-based General sales agents provided Mahan Air with a range of services including sales and customer support services and coordination with freight forwarders and shippers on the Iranian airlines behalf. Which country will be next to be hit with Secondary Sanctions ?

Uranium Iran Nuclear

Uranium enriched above 20% can produce a crude warhead requiring 400 kg , which is impractical. When the enrichment level rises to 60 %, the critical mass drops to about 42 kg and can be fixed in a missile warhead. UN’s nuclear watchdog estimates that Iran has about 45 kg of 20 % enriched uranium.

Demurrage Ports

On an average , Daily Demurrage on a 20 ft Container with standard cargo , being incurred (after 3-5 Free Days )  at $ 10 at Karachi Port and $ 200 at Port of Jebel Ali UAE.  Shipping Lines Daily Detention / container  around $ 25 daily .Lines absurd charge $ 150 for BL !What is the financial threshold when shippers / consignees abandon cargoes. ? Especially for basic agri products like Hay / cattle feed laden from Pakistani Ports. The phenomena of stranded containers ! Almost 70 days since the conflict effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz . For present day booking to Gulf Ports factor in $ 800 -$ 1500 war Insurance and other Surcharges per container .  Despite rebates announced by Maritime authorities , Container / Cargo Terminals not passing on relief to Exporters/ Importers , yet demanding reduction in Port dues including Towing and Pilotage to favour own lines and conveniently repatriating earning to principals in UAE.

Muslim Control of Straits

Muslim control of Hormuz StraitNo country controls the marine traffic of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandab, towards the Red Sea. The administration of the Turkish Straits , Bosphorus and Dardanelles , is governed by the Montreux Convention of 1936 giving Turkiye control over the passage of naval vessels.  As these three straits are bounded by Muslim countries should the Organisation of Muslim Conference (OIC) consider to assume control of the Straits ?

Iran construes the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic weapon in international politics even as early as the codification of Geneva Convention ,where Iran voted against the right of innocent passage through international straits. In the year 1959 ignoring howls of protests from the United Kingdom and other States it proceeded to extend its territorial sea to twelve miles, with reference to the Strait of Hormuz, citing security reasons as motivation. Iran is not even a Contracting Party to UNCLOS.

While China’s Acquiring of stakes in Israel’s Haifa Bayport is worrisome for USA ,the UAE DP World pulled out of the privatisation deal at the last moment allowing India’s Adani Port Group to acquire Israel’s premier Mediterranean Sea Port of Haifa.

Israel is at the verge of signing a $ 35 billion agreement to expand gas exports from the Leviathan offshore gas field to Egypt. S&P reported that the volume likely to flow from Isreal to Egypt will be around 130 Bcm . Egypt was once a net LNG exporter and now imports LNG. Israel and Egypt have traditionally cooperated in energy cooperation and the existing gas agreement is in any event expiring in 2030. This natural gas would be priced using a primarily Brent-indexed formula. Egypt gas production is on the decline and is currently estimated at 31.8 Bcm. US oil major Chevron is partnering with Israel .
The Leviathan gas field is located off Israel’s Mediterranean coast and reserves are almost 600 billion cubic metres. Israel will pump the gas to Egypt through pipelines which is less expensive then LNG on account of super-cooling costs to liquify gas for transportation .Exports from Israel’s Mediterranean Leviathan were temporarily halted during the Israel Iran war

Transshipment Karachi Ports

Contiguous Coastline

Pakistan is fortunate that its ports are directly connected with each other whereas the US , UAE and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ports have no such direct connections. This is significant for Pakistan from a geo commercial aspect. Oman’s Port of Khasab has a reasonable 10 m deep harbour and is located in Oman’s Musandam Governate facing the Strait of Hormuz. The Port of Khasab serves cruise vessels and Iranian cargo and is operated by the Asyad Group . The Musandum Peninsula effectively divides UAE into two halves

Can Ports of Pakistan seize the opportunity and emerge as a regional logistic and maritime hub in the ongoing gulf war ? Issues need to be addressed :
1) Around 8000 containers have been transshipped at ports of Karachi in March , 2026 being equal to the annual number of containers transhipped at Karachi
2) Movement of almost 3 million containers take place annually at Karachi ports
3) Is Value addition transshipment taking place – Cross and destuffing taking place or traditional transshipment of containers in which entire container is loaded onto other shipping line / ship and ports relegated as Feeder ports ?

There is no Cross stuffing or Destuffing at Ports of Pakistan (value addition) , for Transit or Transshipment .  Cross stuffing or Destuffing is done only  for import cargoes. Thus the Transit or Transshipment ecosystem is inadequate.

3) Is only Hutchison Container Terminal Operator SAPTL (KPT) doing the major transhipment in March ,2026 ? As it is a Deepwater Port with a draft of 16 m and can accommodate mother container vessels
4) Are containers destined for Gulf being being only stored in bonded warehouse /offdock terminal or bonded areas ?
6) Are transshiped containers being stored at KPT TPX ?
7) As the Strait of Hormuz is restricted for shipping are containers destined for Gulf (already on high seas) being unloaded at ports of Karachi by shipping lines . Will these containers be subjected to demurrage and detention at both ports of Karachi ? As national flag carrier has no container ship nor owns any containers and containers are owned by foreign shipping lines , is it in a position to provide own containers at lower rates ?
8) Apparently negligible transshipment of containers has taken place at Gwadar Port despite being situated along major shipping routes
9) Transit trade to Central Asia has to be routed through Eastern borders
10) Omani Port of Sallahah has been positioning itself as a major bunkering and transhipment port as it claims it is located away from the present maritime choke points of Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb
11) To retain shipping lines the container dwell time has to be reduced as UAE ports dwell time is 4-6 hours and here it is considerably higher
12) Rail network , being cheapest and low in carbon emissions, has to be in place to transport cargo and containers from ports to other parts of the country and borders
13) Ports operate on landlord model deriving a small % as Royalty on Transshipped containers while major share is retained by Terminal operators which remit major share of revenues outwards
14) Port revenues from Transshipment be complemented alongwith other cargo handling operations as transshipment hubs like Sallalah , Singapore, Fujairah ,Colombo Ports are bunkering , mineral smelting & fuel/blending/storage hubs.

Pakistan’s Commercial Maritime Logistics Security

As the Iran War enters Day 21 issues need to be understood for ensuring Pakistan’s Commercial Maritime Logistics Security ;
1) While it may not be in good taste , yet are the vessels targeted in the Persian Gulf destined for the Ship Recycling “Green” Yards at Gaddani , Balochistan ? Leading to revival of the Ship breaking industry ?
2) As Gulf hydrocarbon revenues plunge and projects go on hold what is the likelihood of the 2.5 million workers in Gulf being repatriated and net remittances of around $ 30 billion taking a dip ?
3) Textile Exports at almost $ 19 billion (import based), fuel prices surge , will Exports dip ? Pakistan’s Exports are around PKR 9 Trillion yet income tax paid by exporters is around a paltry PKR 100 billion – More subsidies or this time around should compete on their own ?
4)Austerity measures to include a slash on BISP payments of PKR 600 billion ?
5) If maritime routes within the Persian Gulf remain in jeopardy and the workforce depletes due to slowdown of construction related activity will Cattle and agri products exports to KSA and UAE be impacted – Lowered domestic prices ?
6) Will Pakistan’s mineral export (Barrite) for the Gulf E&P and Hydrocarbon sector come to a standstill ?
7) Will it take 3-4 months for Gulf Oil, Gas , Ammonia, Nitrogen,Helium (for semi conductor fabrication manufacturing) and Sulphur and nitrogen phosphate blend of fertilisers from Petrochemical refineries to recommence , if the same restarts today ?
8) Fate of 2 Merchant vessels stuck in the Gulf with crude or PoL products?
9) Ports of UAE are transhipment hubs for Pakistan exports .How Will the rising Detention and Demurrage charges of “Refugee” containers, of Pakistani exporters and importers , abandoned at ports and terminals by major shipping lines be paid/ compensated and by whom ?
10) Pakistan Exports to United Arab Emirates were USD $1.7 Billion and exports to Saudi Arabia were USD $ 0.7 Billion during fiscal ending 2024. Liquid Foreign Exchange Reserves with Central Bank are USD $ 16.3 billion as on 3rd March, 2026 . How to prevent reserves depletion ?
11) Are the Subsea Optical Fiber Cables running between coast of Pakistan to Fujairah , U.A.E in the Gulf of Oman secure from sabotage as reportedly threats have been circulated to disrupt internet across Asia ?
11) Salaries of public sector employees have been slashed despite being admittedly low . Private sector executives salaries are several times higher and should not they also contribute to the economic security ?
12) Pakistan’s business community had diverted huge amounts of capital to UAE and KSA and invested heavily in estate and after the virtual collapse of the energy and financial infrastructure in the Gulf will they reinvest in Karachi ?
13) Will Karachi occupy the logistic space & its past glory as a regional maritime, aviation & tourism hub be restored ?

Unanswered questions warranting early resolution.

Border Crossings

Pakistan’s Commerce authorities have granted a one-time waiver for the re-export of over 6,500 containers stuck at Karachi port, as they are incurring rising demurrage charges on account of the border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan being closed. Almost 700 containers are stuck at Chaman and Torkham border crossings. The containers have arrived mainly from Malaysia , China and Vietnam and are destined for Afghanistan. The volume of Afghan imports transiting through Pakistan has declined significantly from $ 6.7bn in FY23  to $ 1 billion in FY25 and could fall further.  Is the region witnessing a shift in Afghanistan’s transit trade import routes and ports through which its trade is conducted ? Credit;Dawn

Deep Seabed Mining

China has 5 licenses for Deep Seabed Mining for exploration of Critical and Rare Earth Elements/Minerals from the International Seabed Authority , India has 2 , Russia has 2 , South Korea has 3, Singapore has 1 , Tonga has 1 , Japan has one and the US has none.

Anti Money Laundering SBP

As per Form M of the Central Bank (an archaic doc) no resident Pakistani can purchase or acquire any property or assets abroad without specific and transaction wise approvals of the State Bank of Pakistan which seems to have turned a blind eye to such flagrant violations of the Anti-Money Laundering laws ? Such violations of the Foreign Exchange Regulations for acquiring properties leading to citizenship in countries like Portugal, attract the provisions of the Anti Money Laundering regime. Will FBR and SBP identify recover and prevent precious forex leakages ??

Corporate Logistics Illicit Money Laundering

The Land mass of Balochistan province is 43 % and its contribution to federal tax revenues is just above 1 % of total federal tax collection. How integrated is the province in the national economy ?
Hydrocarbon exploration and production is being diverted to other provinces, on account of exorbitant security costs. In any case LNG is imported at exorbitant rates under a dubious agreement , details of which remain shrouded in mystery .
The daily movement of trucks at border crossings of Balochistan is around 550 trucks . If the value of trucks only is estimated at PKR 30 million per single truck that works out to a daily turnaround (averaged with cargoes ) of PKR 17 billion of transport and annually PKR 6 trillion in Balochistan transport sector alone .
LPG bowser cargo is around USD $ 20 thousand per trip !! The annual federal tax collection from Balochistan province including Customs duties is around PKR 150 billion. Advance Income tax paid by a truck is pitiable and in the range of PKR Ten thousand !!
Annual Custom Duties collected from Balochistan is estimated at PKR 30 Billion annually !!
FBR ?
Instead of retail outlets collecting Petroleum Levy this aspect of national revenues should be initiated on a war footing so as to provide relief to the common man.

National Carrier Subsidises Exporters

National Flag Carrier PNSC vessel  MV Sibi, a conventional bulk carrier after conversion to transport container, was deployed to facilitate Pakistan exporters and importers by providing direct connectivity between the GCC Khor Fakkan Emirates Port and Pakistan during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel successfully completed two inbound/outbound voyages  .During her third voyage to Karachi, carrying 307 containers, she encountered severe weather conditions associated with the Southwest Monsoon. Upon berthing at KICT, it was observed that certain containers stowed in Holds No. 1 and No. 5 had shifted and sustained damage due to the heavy weather. Cargo stowed in Holds No. 2, 3, and 4 remained intact.Such occurrences are common under Monsoon conditions. Hutchison Port Terminal operator KICT successfully discharged all cargo from Holds No. 2, 3, and 4, as well as part-cargo from Hold No. 5. A total of 71 containers remain onboard in Holds No. 1 and No. 5, out of which approximately 25–30 containers are anticipated to have sustained damage as a result of the adverse weather conditions.No containers have been lost overboard and all cargo remains onboard . PNSC is actively coordinating with the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) to shift the vessel to East Wharf or West Wharf for the discharge of the remaining containers. The vessel has not sustained any structural damage and remains seaworthy.The severe weather encountered was beyond the control of the carrier/PNSC. Nevertheless, all possible efforts were undertaken, in coordination with relevant port authorities and stakeholders, to safely discharge the remaining cargo and minimize inconvenience to customers.Pakistan does not have any container ship and pays billions in $ / forex to external shipping lines to transport containers. Independent media sources are reporting that Containers fell down inside the cargo hold due to cell guide failure/ non availability. Furthermore the conversion from bulk ship to container is not easy and cannot be done overnight . At times alternate lashing arrangements need to be deployed to secure , Classification , approved loadline software to calculate stresses in harbour and sea mode , compliance of Solas chapter VI regulation 2 and ISM code on ship and shore. Insurers and P&I Club cover damages only if certain safety parameters are observed. Annual Income tax paid by exporters is PKR 100 billion whereas the annual income tax paid by the salaried class is PKR 600 billion. The question arises what was the need to subsidise exporters and put a ship at risk as the exporters should be competitive and not plead for subsidies. PNSC would have earned more revenues if the ship MV SIBI had been used for bulk cargo operations on more profitable routes rather then subsidising a few dozen exporters.

Chinese Reverse Engineering

Recently the Chinese acquired a Russian fighter engine, took it apart and copied every part. Their copy ran 30 hours between engine overhauls versus 400 for the original whereas modern Western engines run 4,000 hours . Reverse engineering the shape of a turbine blade is one aspect. Reverse engineering 60 years of metallurgy is not as simple as it sounds.

Civil Servants AI Digital Training

Pakistan has around 2.4 million (24 lac) Civil Servants . There exists no single digital training platform . Development of an online training platform could offer short (mandatory) professional training and capacity enhancement courses for civil servants . These online trainings would be cost effective , with flexible timings and complement and supplement promotional training at institutes. The scope of online training courses may include national and international languages and understanding of the domains of AI , fiscal management , climate , environment , marine biodiversity , transition to green fuels , forensics and criminology , anti money laundering , regulatory agencies role , taxation , revenue , energy , food security , digital technology , agricultural practices , fisheries and aquaculture, export value addition , mining , critical minerals, water management , blue economy ,shipping , hydrology , hydrography , freight forwarding of cargo, regional trade , WTO and non tariff barriers , phytosanitory standards , public health ,negogiating international and national agreements , cargo movements across borders , transit trade , transshipment , multi modal transportation , fuel and power tariffs modelling , logistics , hospitality , culinary , higher education , vocational training , disinvestment and valuation of strategic assets .

Gemstones Value Addition

Pakistan posesses huge reserves of gemstones and precious jewelry such as Emeralds ,variety of quartz , Rubies ,Aquamarine, Topaz ,Tourmaline, Sapphire, Peridot, Garnet, Lapiz Lazuli, Kunzite and Morganite. The Northern Areas are rich in gemstones and collectors items in Feldspar and miners from Kohistan , Hunzai and Swat gather at Namakmandi Peshawar to trade and export gems. Severe logistics issues, evaluation procedures , archaic cutting and polishing styles, complicated licensing and leasing regime and border Customs interference hamper the value addition and development of the gemstone sector which can become a $ billion trade.

Vietnams Exports & US Tariffs

Vietnam’s annual exports for fiscal 2025 were in the range of $ 475 billion with shipments to the United States worth $153 billion, far outstripping previous years exports to USA of $ 119 billion. That has led to an unprecedented trade surplus with USA of nearly $134 billion . Vietnam has shrugged off U.S duties (tariff) of 20% imposed on its goods by the Trump administration .

Pakistan’s Merchant Navy comprises around a dozen ships flagged in Pakistan . Down from a fleet of 66 in the eighties . Almost $ 5 billion are paid to external shipping lines . Is Pakistan’s fleet sufficient to cater to its seaborne trade requirements comprising almost 95 % of movement of goods & containers ?

The US Federal Maritime Commission claims to have discovered restrictive port practices at the Port-of-Algeciras, Spain supposedly creating unfavorable shipping conditions in foreign trade compelling US flagged vessels to substitute port calls at Tangier Port instead of Algeciras . In retaliation the US agency is proposing tageting Spanish flagged vessels and placing restrictions on the importation of certain Spanish goods. The US Federal Maritime Commission proposed actions may include a fee of $ 200,000 per voyage to the U.S. by Spanish-flagged vessels. Restrictions may be placed on the importation of Spanish goods, including olive oil, perfumery, cosmetics, ceramics , sugar and confectionaries.

Activists in Spain protested on the premise that the U.S.-flagged Maersk Lines ships were carrying military supplies to Israel , supporting the war in Gaza, violating Spain’s ban on the transshipment of arms to Israel through its ports. Under fire is the ability of the US Federal Maritime Commission to promote the growth and development of U.S. exports, encourage the development of a liner fleet of U.S. vessels , capable of meeting national security needs and supporting trade and commerce and supporting the U.S. merchant marine.

Trade volumes remain stagnant

Pakistan’s Commodity wise Exports (Merchandise/goods) for Financial year ending June 2026;

Trade volumes remain stagnant since a decade . Negligible value addition involved , even textile exports are of loose fabrics. Metallic and critical minerals such as copper exported as ore concentrate , subsequently imported in the form of Electronic Vehicles , electric batteries ,solar cells and electronic components . No smelting or refining of minerals takes place. Fish & Crustacean exports may be inclusive of inland fisheries . Football manufacturing entails imported materials like high grade synthetic leather, bladders, advanced bonding chemicals ,high-performance synthetic polymers, smart-ball microchip tech and brand mandated raw inputs to meet exact FIFA standards. Is it safe to say that as exports rise so do imports rise ? Can logistics and trade volumes be enhanced if exports remain import based ?

Commodity                                   Export in USD $ billions/millions
All commodities                           30.8 billion (provisional)

Works of Art & Antiques            62 million
Arms & Ammunition                   92 m
Base Metals                                 1.3 b
Copper                                          0.9 b
Precious/semi precious stones     26 m
Textiles & Textile Articles            17.7 billion
Pharmaceutical products              265 m
Edible vegetables                           122 m
Edible fruits & nuts 265 m
Live Animals &
Animals Products                            1.1 billion
Fish & Crustaceans                         498 m
Cereals                                               2.1 b
Articles of leather                             714 m
Salt, Sulfur, Earth’s &
Stones, Lime & Stone 583 m
Cement                                               346 m (other sources)
Football 256 m (other sources)

Source :Central Bank

Pakistan Hydrocarbon Import Bill -Staggering

Credit;PNSC

Pakistan imports around 130 million barrels annually (crude 68 and refined petroleum products 57 million bpd) from ADNOC , Kuwait and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. India over the last 5 years incurred an expenditure of nearly 8 billion dollars has been incurred on chartering ships, an amount that could have built a new fleet of Indian-owned tankers. Around 20 % of India’s trade cargo is carried on India-flagged or India-owned carriers.

Pakistan’s state owned marketing company (PSO) holds the largest fuel storage capacity at 45 % of the entire storage of the country at 1,135 KMT . As per industry sources Pakistan’s commercial crude storage is around 14 days and till such time it enhances storage its negogiating strength is less , despite being a client importing Fossil Fuel annually of almost $ 16.7 billion . Pakistan’s LPG storage is around 70,000 MT and it consumes around 1.3 million metric tonnes annually . Almost 71 % of LPG is imported despite re-activation of JJVL , as gas allocation by SSGCL is low.  Pakistan’s LPG cover is critically low of 19 days as compared to India’s LPG storage coverage of 45 days . Grain storage capacity , mainly of wheat , is around 4.5 million MT against an annual production of 29.5 million MT . This grain stoarge is housed in godowns mostly and only 260,000 tonnes are in modern silos.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is slashing prices to lure Asian buyers, offering discounts of as much as $ 5/bbl .
Will Pakistan will be a beneficiary ?

Pakistan’s Skewed Transportion Taxation Architecture

Average value of a Large passenger Bus and Large Truck /Trailer is in range of PKR 20 – 40 Million .

Surprisingly as per the Pakistan Income Tax law the :

Rates of Advance collection of tax under section 234 for goods transport vehicles is PKR 2.5 / kg of the laden weight

For 10 years old goods transport vehicles with laden weight of 8120 kg tax is PKR 1200 / per annum

Salaried Sector pays Income tax of PKR 600 Billion annually , Sad Faced Exporters pay Income tax of PKR 100 Billion annually (Annual Exports around PKR 9 Trillion)

What is then the Tax contribution of the Exporter and prosperous Transport community ?

Manure to Energy

Organic Manure is Nature’s way of Recycling .The prevalent use of antibiotics in conventional animal production causes antibiotic resistance. Has the chemical fertiliser & pharmaceutical lobby ganged up against the usage of Organic fertilisers ? Chemical / synthethic fertilisers consume excessive water compared to organic fertlisers , lead to noxious atmospheric emissions and adverse climate change and as chemical fertilisers release toxins into the water & food supply chain is a cause of cancer & other communicable & non-communicable deseases . Landfills should invariably be accompanied with infrastructure to convert urban and rural solid waste into organic manure /fertiliser and syn gas as energy . Instead of civic agencies/ metropolitan / town municipalities paying PKR 16-25 billion (almost USD $ 70 million ) annually to garbage and solid waste collecting firms , it should be the other way around. The revenues of civic agencies/ metropolitan / town municipalities would significantly increase resulting in improved public service delivery.

As reported by Bloom , a Turkish firm is being awarded a PKR 16 Billion contract for collection and transportation of Islamabad waste to the landfill .What is intriguing is that while all such contracts worldwide employ dual purposes , namely that the solid waste is used to produce gas , diesel and organic manure , highly prized products yet this contract appears fundamentally flawed and deficient. Landfills remain unsightly and a source of pollution and toxicity and penetrate the food supply chain. In other countries , employing carbon capture  and environmentally friendly technology , the solid waste generates gas and organic fertilisers . It is advisable that the award be reviewed and an international third party study and due diligence be conducted prior to finalisation of award. The relevant regulatory authorities need to intervene in such matters

Euro Green Bond Badin Locks

Netherlands launched a Euro Green Bond designed to fund projects to cope with climate change impacts and an advanced low carbon economy focusing on using coastal and river ecosystems as a safeguard for flood risk.The Green Bonds issue was oversubscribed by more than 15 billion Euros, reducing the risks of climate induced coastal flooding. Netherlands operates around 2,000 water locks, essential for flood protection. Unfortunately the lock at Badin ,Sindh at the tail end of the Left Bank Outfall Drainage (LBOD) collapsed more then 25 years back.

Flooding Climate Change

Concreting – Flooding The recent rain has caused massive inundation along Deg Nala from Sialkot downstream to Sheikhupura and huge tracts of land are submerged . Driving along the Motorway M 2 it seems it is a coastal highway.The Nalas that flow from District Narowal and drain in river Ravi, including Deg Nala, Minor Deg, Bhair,  smaller tributaries and irrigation drainage channels have spilled over causing flooding along the 60 km Lahore  Sialkot Motorway. The monsoon rains are average , despite claims to the contrary, and the inundation is attributable to Lahore- Sialkot Motorway blocking the natural drainage of water as its culverts are not sufficient to carry the spill over or stagnant water. Making matters worse is that wherever water is draining out through the culverts it is blocked by fresh construction on the other side of the road. The unchecked proliferation of housing estates , displaying media celebrities, has run its course after luring unsuspecting investment. The propensity to award road construction projects appears to have overlooked the issue of drainage of water. In a few weeks the water will be absorbed or evaporate. The damage to food security and infrastructure is incalculable and perhaps reoccurring.

The Ministry of Climate Change site reveals that the Green Climate Fund (GCF) of UNFCCC is mandated to redistribute money from the developed to the developing world. Such financial assistance is aimed towards countering the impact of Climate Change on developing countries through adaptation and mitigation efforts. Pakistan’s current portfolio of the GCC comprises of USD $ 249 Million . So far only 7 projects have been approved by GCC including :

Green BRT Karachi – $ USD 583 Million
Scaling Glacial Lake Outburst Flood – $ USD 37 Million
Transforming Indus Basin with Climate Resilient Agriculture – $ USD 47 Million
Pakistan Distributed Solar Project – $ USD 54 Million

Kanni Wignaraja , UN Assistant Secretary General and Regional Director for Asia shared that floods, droughts and heatwaves cost the country around $ 2 billion annually . Pakistan’s climate financing gap is expected to be $ USD 380 billion by 2030 according to Samuel Rizk UNDP Pakistan Representative . The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in line with international conventions focuses on the areas of biodiversity loss, aquaculture ,biomass technology , coastal tourism and seafood processing for vulnerable and marginalised fishing communities, chemicals and waste, climate change, clean energy technology solutions , Sustainable Waste Management Solutions for GHG Emission Reduction from Municipal and Industrial Solid Waste, Deforestation of Chilghoza Pine and land degradation. Pakistan has to date accessed $ USD 80 Million in funding from GEF. Apart from approved projects GEF had allocated $ USD 17.7 Million for Pakistan for 2022-2024. Pakistan has severe capacity issues in preparing of viable and bankable projects despite readily available financial assistance from Green Climate Fund. So far Pakistan has obtained only a minuscule amount of the funding available from UNFCCC.

Climate Fantasies ? Reversing Climate Narrative ? Glacier Melting ? Photosynthesis ?

The Carbon Footprint of Electric Vehicles , Windmills & Solar Cells is extremely high as well as a drain on precious foreign exchange as well. Imports may be discouraged through taxation. Extraction process of solar and windmill turbines is energy intensive, requires burning of minerals & raw materials in coal powered furnace at extremely high tempeartures, resulting in contamination, deforestation, disposal of batteries, turbines, solar equipment & dumping into landfills & recycling is prohibitively expensive.

Solar panels & turbines useful life is round 15 years – alternate but not renewable source of energy . On the other hand average life of a Power Plant is 50- 80 years after which they are mothballed. Solar panels reflect sunlight causing untimely precipitation & flooding and what is nowadays termed ” cloudburst “. Besides energy from solar or windmill is seasonal and needs to be backed up at all times by fossil fuel powered plants . One Megawatt of Solar or Wind Energy has to be backed by one megawatt of fossil or nuclear or hydro energy at all times or 24/7 . This is particularly essential in the case of Digital Data Centers which are water & energy intensive . The Carbon Footprint of batteries to store energy, maybe for 4-5 hours , is frightingly high and when dumped into landfills make water aquifiers toxic and are carcinogenic . Recycling solar panels containing fiberglass and asbestos is an environmental nightmare. Around half a million Balsa tress logged annualy from Amazon Rainforests being a component of turbines blades.

No independent Scientific evidence or satellite data to establish glaciers melting at a faster pace than before or that the polar cap is shrinking as accumulation of ice at high altitudes results in glaciers breaking & sliding.

Carbon Dioxide Co2 essential for Photosyntheses & Greenery .Instead of burdening the common man a One Time Carbon / Climate Change Tax be imposed on Cement , Coal , Chlor -Alkali producing plants which pollute the atmosphere,massively generate Carbon & Greenhouse Gases ,toxic minerals & chemicals causing chronic diseases amongst infants & pollute water resources. An increase in people suffering from disease benefits the Pharmaceutical industry .

Floating solar panels are innovative in the realm of renewable energy ,water conservation & replacing fossil fuel. By harnessing solar power on water reservoirs, lakes & protected harbour areas these installations generate clean energy reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In the perspective of Water Security floating solar panels conserve water resources by reducing evaporation from water surfaces,of immense significance in water scarce areas .Shade and shelter provided by floating solar panels minimises direct exposure of water to sunlight resulting in significantly low evaporation rates in arid regions like Saudia and Sahara desert ensuring efficient water usage for agriculture and drinking .

Data Theft Cyber Security in EV Vehicles

Is Your Data is being stolen while Driving ? Tech and Digital experts are stunned by the BYD Shark’s lack of cybersecurity and how easily a BYD can be hacked and its driving controls remotely assumed elsewhere.  The lack of a password conveniently allows access to the car’s digital arteries. Modern connected cars, particularly EVs and hybrids, are increasingly run by software, giving manufacturers the power to change, update and control vehicles. China has an overcapacity in EV production. In the case of BYD and others, software is controlled from China. In countries like Pakistan where the income disparity is increasing and fuel prices rising , EVs and plug-in hybrids like the Chinese manufactured Shark have gone mainstream this year, making up almost a third of new cars sales to date.EVs, with all their sensors, cameras and microphones, hoover up and spit out vast amounts of data. Experts say that data poses a greater risk in the hands of Chinese EV manufacturers as they can be compelled by the country’s national security laws. Sabotage and external surveillance due to the array of cameras and microphones on an EV compelled the UK military to ban Chinese EVs, even those made with Chinese components, from parking within 3 kilometers of sensitive locations.  China has banned foreign EVs from military sites and political enclaves, aware of their surveillance potential.Is your EV completely vulnerable to Cyber hacking , access to personal , banking and financial data ? Can a Cyber hacker control your car while it’s on the road ?Credit ;ABC News & Headlines Angus Grigg

Charging Electric Cars – Soothing Environmental Conscience

The world generates around 60-65  % of electricity through combustion of fossil fuels either coal or natural gas, perceived to be a “ dirty grid” causing carbon emissions and environmental degradation .
Each charging event of an electric vehicle is carried out through this dirty” grid. The Carbon Footprint for electric vehicles charging is staggeringly high as essential raw materials required for “ green technology “  include extracting lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel for an electric car battery.

The process requires mining hundreds of tons of earth, refining ore at 700 degree Celsius in Coal fired furnaces , consuming millions of liters of precious groundwater, degrading fragile water aquifers which make the environment toxic as carcinogenic compounds seep into the agricultural supply chain.

The disposal of the batteries themselves is a challenge as recycling is not feasible and energy and carbon intensive .The admitted change is that the electricity producing “ dirty “ power plants running on fossil fuel infrastructure  are not visible .The energy supply chain has been successfully re-branded as “green” , the shame is now out of sight and the collective environmental conscience clean . The re sale value of vehicles running on electricity  plummets as batteries storage drops after a year requiring additional charging .

Landsliding & Cloudburst – Tunneling & Boring

Reels of land sliding in Northern Areas , GB and AJK are common. Why not do tunnelling ? As roads which should have been constructed wide instead of being so narrow that a landslide disrupts and massive and reoccurring expenditure ($ millions worth of expenditure) is carried out to clear frequent landslides ? A boring machine is worth $ 30-40 million . Country’s average daily foreign exchange flow is $ 220 million !Why to keep incurring passive expenditures ?

Cloudburst are now a frequent occurrence in the Northern Areas , triggering massive landslides and disrupting the supply chain and logistics corridor to Central Asia and China . Proliferation of Tin Roofs and Solar panels is reflecting Sunlight whereas it had always been absorbed , causing untimely precipitation , leading to land sliding on the highways . Is the Climate Change of our own choosing ? Don’t Mess with Nature !

Transportation of Tunnel Boring Machine to be used for construction of the New Hudson Tunnel. Such sort of underwater tunnel boring machines cost may reach $ 40 million with a diameter of 16 m. For hard rock underground subway metro and with a diameter of 13 m the cost averages at $ 20 million.Rule of the thumb is $1 million per meter of diameter   The underground tunnels reduce environmental degradation and Carbon footprint . The city of Karachi should establish underground transportation , as in other port and mega cities , to manage the  present massive passenger , cargo and container movement across the city road infrastructure

Import of Cars & Stunting

Import of CKD vehicles is valued at around USD $ 2.1 billion for the fiscal ending June, 2026 . Chinese manfacturers have so far not shared any details of localisation plans . Whereas Net Foreign Exchange Reserves hover around USD $ 17 billion.
An average Electric Vehicle (EV) , engine of which comprises rare earth elements and critical minerals , costs from PKR 10 -20 million . Ore concentrate including critical minerals is exported in shiploads .No smelting and refining takes place in the country of production.
As per IMF around 44 % of the population lives below the poverty level and almost 40 % of children below the age of 5 suffer from stunted growth .

Exports & Imports Workers’ remittances

During financial year (FY) ending June 2026, Pakistan’s exports of goods and services were $ 40.88 billion compared with $40.79 billion in FY25, a rise of 0.5 %. In other words exports are stagnating since a decade

Imports of goods and services rose to $ 76.39 billion against last FY from $ 70.43 billion a year earlier, an increase of 8.5 % (credit Business Recorder).

Gap between exports and imports almost $ 36 billion. Workers’ remittances reached $ 41.59 billion in FY26 from $38.3 billion . As per Central Bank data Net Foreign Exchange reserves stood at $ 18.5 billion at the end of FY26, compared with around $ 14.64 billion a year earlier.

As per SBP ;

Net Foreign Exchange Reserves as 3-Jul-26    $ 18,4 billion
Exports June 2025 to May 2026                       $ 28.3 b
Imports June 2025 to May 2026                       $ 58.4 b

Exports of Goods & Services                           $ 37.4 b
Exports of Goods                                                  $ 28.3
Exports of Services                                              $ 9.1
Telecom, Computer &
IT  (Digital)                                $ 4.2 b

Workers’ remittances during FY 2026 amounted to US $ 41.6 billion with major corridors of workers’ remittances being from Saudi Arabia followed by United Arab Emirates , United Kingdom and United States of America.

Fuel Taxation

How Fuel is Taxed in Pakistan :
Price Build-up formula mainly consists of:(i) Ex-refinery import parity price/PSO weighted average cost of purchases(ii) Federal Excise duty  (FBR) (iii) Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM)(iv) Distribution Margin at around PKR 9 /liter(v) Dealer’s Margin at around PKR 9/liter (vi) Petroleum Levy or surcharge which is variable and is charged at around PKR 90 /liter (Ministry of Energy,Petroleum Division)(vii) Sales tax (FBR) Average 17 %(viii) Income tax withholding 6%(ix) Climate / Carbon tax PKR 2.5 / liter. Fuel product prices are higher than the import parity price because of taxes. Petroleum products contribute to government revenues and was around 35 % of total tax revenues in the FY 2019. From a business perspective such high taxation  is discouraging when there is hardly any development taking place from the revenue collected. Nor have refineries been upgraded from the Petroleum Levy.

Elitist Lobbies clamour for Subsidies amidst Gulf crisis

Elitist Lobbies clamour for Subsidies amidst Gulf crisis- Export & Energy sectors

Break up of FBR Revenue Collection during FY 2024-25 =PKR 11,744 billion
Direct tax Collection = 5,791 billion
Withholding Taxes (Direct tax) 3,382 billion
Exports (Withholding tax) 122,271 million
Contracts 737,715 million
Imports 421,766 million
Salaries (tax paid) 605,593 million

Sales tax (Domestic) on Electrical Energy  460,558 million
Sales tax on       POL Products 138,858 million
Sales tax on       Natural Gas 45,690 million
Sales tax (Import) on       POL Products 315,091 million
Sales tax (Import) on
Gross Sales tax (Import)              2,281,990 million
Customs Duty on POL Products 299,508  million

ISSUES
(A)                 Total Exports = PKR 9 Trillion / 9,000 billion .Income tax collection from export (withholding tax mode) sector is minuscule ,highly concessionary tax regime
(B)Exports largely Import based – If Textile Exports (being low of value addition) decrease hence Imports decrease and balance of payments situation will not be worrisome. Quantum of exports in bulk and containers has remained stagnant since last 5 years.
(C) If remittances (Gross or Net) are increasing phenomenally how Foreign Exchange Reserves of Central Bank hover around USD $ 16 billion , since years ?
(D)Instead of massively subsidising Exports why not to subsidise Services sector /Tech (intellect involved) exports of which are averaging at USD $ 250 per month  yet not requiring imports or forex payments /outward remittances

Source ; FBR year

A RANDOM SAMPLING / ANALYSIS of TAX PAID on INCOME/PROFITS by FERTILISER ,TOBACCO , TEXTILE , SUGAR & CEMENT SECTOR

Average company tax rate is 39 % and in case profits are repatriated can go upto 59 % . While tax rates on the hapless taxpayers are rising when have fertiliser, tobacco , textile , sugar and cement companies financial statements been actually scrutinised by FBR /audit tax authorities ? The tax on income/profits paid by these sectors is apparently minuscule as a percentage of revenues/sales. FBR is placing excessive reliance on advance /witholding tax regime , refundable or adjustable largely, which unfortunately has resulted in a massive pile of debt on the treasury . No wonder FBR revenues are less then the previous year, as reported in the media. The consumer does not have the fiscal strength or capacity to pay more tax. The textile, cement, sugar , fertiliser and tobacco sectors earning the most should be the focus of financial scrutiny by FBR .The hapless salaried class pays direct/ income tax to the tune of Rs 400 billion annually ! Figures as per declared financial results below ;

PAKISTAN TOBACCO COMPANY PTC
Gross Turnover for 6 months (Jan to June 2025) = Rs 184 billion (b)
Net Turnover for 6 months   (Jan to June 2025)  = Rs 69 b
Gross    Profit       = 32
Operating Profit   =  24
Profit after tax      = 14 b
TAX worked out   =  10 b

BESTWAY CEMENT – Year ended June 2024
Gross turnover   –  145 billion
Gross profit        –  32
Profit before tax  –  22
Profit after tax     – 13 b
TAX                      –  9 billion

HABIB SUGAR MILL Year 2024
Net Sales         – 20 billion
Gross Profit     – 2
Other income    – 1.2
Operating profit – 2.7
TAX                    – 0.5 billion

GUL AHMED TEXTILE MILLS LIMITED AS ON JUNE 2024
Sales Exports     – 143 billion
Gross Profit       – 17
Operating profit – 12
Profit / (loss) before tax – 6 billion
Profit / (loss) after tax – 4.7 billion
TAX – 1 billion

FATIMA FERTLIZER  Year 2024
Sales.                 – 238 billion
Gross Profit       – 87
Profit / (loss) before tax – 60 billion
Profit / (loss) after tax     – 34 billion
TAX                                 – 25 billion

Sources/Credit ; ( Fatima Fertiliser Annual Report website ), (PTC website)
, (Habib Sugar Mill website), ( Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Limited Annual Report website ), (Bestway website). (Figures rounded to billion for convenience)

Critical Minerals

The Trade Development Authority Pakistan , under the Ministry of Commerce , shared that as per PBS data the exports of Minerals (mainly through sea) during FY 2022-2023 is USD $1635.9 Million ($1.7 Billion). This is mineral ore / concentrate and no smelting or refining is involved in Pakistan , which would make the value addition several times more.

Coal Tariff

The Pakistani National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) approved the final selling price for 660 MW Thar coal-fired power plant, located in the Tharparkar district of the Sindh province setting the tariff for the project, which required a total investment of US$ 952m, at PKR14.8/kWh (US$ 7c/kWh) of electricity for the first 10 years, and PKR9.3/kWh (US$ 4c/kWh) for the next 20 years. The project, which entered commercial operations in 2019, is owned by the Pakistani conglomerate Engro Group (51%) and China Machinery Engineering Corporation (35%). The electricity tariff for imported primary fuel of natural gas Engro power plant is Rs. 9.4 Rs/kwh , Port Qasim Engro power plant with primary fuel being imported coal is Rs. 10.0  Rs/kwh, China Power with imported coal at  Rs. 11.4 Rs/kwh, Sahiwal with imported coal at  Rs. 11.8 Rs/kwh, Thar Coal Block 1 with Thar coal at  Rs. 14.3 Rs/kwh, Engro Power Gen with Thar coal at  Rs. 14.7 Rs/kwh , Thar Energy with Thar coal at  Rs. 15.1 Rs/kwhAs per NEPRA Electricity Tariff for hydro is PKR 4.81 / kWh.

Strait of Hormuz Conflict Impact on Ports of Pakistan

Port of Shanghai (China) : Annual Turnover of 51 million TEU’s (20 feet Containers)
Port of Singapore : 41 m TEUs , mainly Transhipment
Port of Busan (South Korea) : 22 m TEUs
Rotterdam Port : Accommodates 30,000 oceangoing ships, 130,000 river ships , 14 m TEUs
Colombo (Sri Lanka) : Port features Ultra-deep waters up to 20 meters , 7 m TEUs roughly 80 % transshipment
Port of Hong Kong (China) :18 m TEU’s
Port of Jebel Ali (UAE): Operated by DP World 15 m TEUs
Sallalah Port (Oman) : 4 m TEU’s
Sohar Port (Oman) : 3,500 vessel calls , 21 million sqm deep-sea hub,
Port of Mombasa (Kenya) : 2 m TEUs
Port of New York and New Jersey  : Supports 580,000 jobs, $18 billion tax revenue , 8.7 m TEUs
The London Gateway Port : Integrated Logistics Hub on River Thames 30 miles from Central London, 3 m TEUs . UK has 21 major ports
Port Bin Qasim and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) : Combined above 3 Million TEU’s , average 3600 vessel call annually

Each port has its own logistic dynamics. Ports are integrated logistic hubs or logistic corridors and the success of a port in attracting cargoes and foreign lines is Bunkering , Dwell Time , Regulatory Ease, National Trade Volumes , Merchant Ship Repair facilities , Transparency of Concession Agreements with Bulk and Container Terminals Operators, Rail connectivity , Inland Waterways accessibility and Trucking stations along with huge stacking area and storage terminals besides other factors . Ports of Karachi have the unique advantage of being hinterland, transit and transhipment ports. While the Economy of Pakistan is vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz conflict Pakistani Ports are in an advantageous position to revive and regain its past glory as the regional maritime, aviation , tourism and logistic hub of the eighties.

Railway Freight & Climate Change

Visited Wazir Mansion Railway Station adjacent to Karachi Port KPT. The station is functional and managed by a Station Master and has 6 Tracks , stacking area and storage of around 60 acres (apparently KPT leased land) and at times 300 Containers of 20 TEU are stored. The average charge of Railways for a wagon  loaded with two (02) Containers of 20 TEU was PKR 2.5 lac but with the recent spike in fuel prices it rose above PKR 3.5 lac . It is commercially optimal to operate a container train with 25-30 wagons. Cargoes seen to be dumped were imported fertiliser soils. Around 2 weekly trainloads of Rock Phosphate  leave from West Wharf of Port. Usual destinations are Mughalpura and Faislabad  and empty containers are transported back on the same wagons. More interestingly there exists a rail track of around 15 km , extending  along the Lyari Expressway , to Orangi Railway Station. In between are Lyari , Mangopir and Gulbai Railway stations.  This was the Circular Railway where the passenger / commuter train speed was 10-20 km/ hour . The track is damaged due to lack of upkeep. The Carbon Emission from Train transport is significantly lower then of vehicles .

Wazir Mansion Railway Station is adjacent to Karachi Port KPT. The station is functional and managed by a Station Master and has 6 Tracks , stacking area and storage of around 60 acres (apparently KPT leased land) and at times 300 Containers of 20 TEU are stored. The average charge of Railways for a wagon  loaded with two (02) Containers of 20 TEU was PKR 2.5 lac but with the recent spike in fuel prices it rose above PKR 3.5 lac . It is commercially optimal to operate a container train with 25-30 wagons. Cargoes seen to be dumped were imported fertiliser soils. Around 2 weekly trainloads of Rock Phosphate  leave from West Wharf of Port. Usual destinations are Mughalpura and Faislabad  and empty containers are transported back on the same wagons. More interestingly there exists a rail track of around 15 km , extending  along the Lyari Expressway , to Orangi Railway Station. In between are Lyari , Mangopir and Gulbai Railway stations.  This was the Circular Railway where the passenger / commuter train speed was 10-20 km/ hour . The track is damaged due to lack of upkeep. The Carbon Emission from Train transport is significantly lower then of vehicles .

Textiles & Wages

Textile Labor Textile Annual Exports around PKR 9 Trillion Income Tax paid by Textile Sector PKR 100 BillionIncome Tax paid by Salaried class PKR 600 Billion Denim Textile monthly Workers Wages around PKR 37,000 or $ 127 Business Model.

Income Support Program

Budget Versus Policy Clarity
A colossal amount of PKR 863 Billion allocated for Income Support Programme for Fiscal ending 2027 (17 % increase), with the financial burden solely on the Federal Government . Why not divert this massive dole of PKR 863 billion elsewhere.

According to UNICEF Pakistan’s out-of-school children are estimated at 25 million children . Gender disparities exacerbate these patterns as the number of out-of-school girls exceeds that of boys.

According to the World Bank stunting being closely associated with brain development and physical growth with around 40 % of Pakistan’s under 5 years of age children suffering from stunting as compared to the South Asian average of 31 %. According to the World Bank approximately 45% of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty level.

As per the law income support is not in perpetuity but only to provide opportunities in vocational training and skill development etc. Existing taxpayers are paying for this program. A Third Party Independent Forensic Audit needs to be conducted as to whether the scheme , scope and purpose of the Income Support Program law is being followed in letter and spirit . This would enhance transparency as well if the Forensic Audit outcomes are placed in the public domain
Income Support Law
ACT NO XVIII OF 2010 An Act to provide for establishment of the Benazir Income Support Programmе
AND WHEREAS it is desirable to provide financial assistance and other social protection and safety net measures to economically distressed persons and families;
AND WHEREAS it is expedient to bring a positive change in the lives of poor and destitute by providing various opportunities to them such as education, special education, vocational training, skill development, workfare programs, livelihood programs, health insurance, accident insurance and access to microfinance for improving their financial status; AND WHEREAS it is expedient to establish an autonomous social safety net authority to co-ordinate the design and implementation of targeted programmes for the poor;
“eligible person” means a person or a family, as the case may be, eligible for financial assistance under section 11;
4. Objective and Purposes of the Programme.-The objective and purposes of the Programme shall be to- (a) enhance financial capacity of the poor people and their dependent family members; (b) formulate and implement comprehensive policies and targeted programmes for the uplift of underprivileged and vulnerable people; and (c) reduce poverty and promote equitable distribution of wealth especially for the low income groups.
ELIGIBILTY FOR PROGRAMME BENEFITS AND ITS DISBURSMENT 11. Eligible
persons or families for financial assistance.-The Board shall determine, from time to time, criteria for the eligibility of persons and families for financial assistance from the Programme.

Research

Pakistani universities ,whether public or private sector , fare badly in latest World University rankings . None could make it  even in the world’s top 350. Apparently attributable to lack of research (citations per faculty ). A massive re- orientation is required in the academic and research sector . Instead of doling out a massive PKR 863 billion (almost $ 3 billion annually) to Income Support Programme (not entirely aligned to programme statute) such fundings should be diverted to R&D . Need of the hour in order to support socio – economic development of the country.

Ports & Provincial Jurisdiction based on Revenues

Ports at Karachi operate under federal statutes,own tracts of prime estate, at sea as well .Revenue including Income tax ,Sales tax & Customs collected at source online when vessels berth and load or unload cargoes including containers . At times the cargoes and containers are transported to bonded and dry ports acroass the lenght and breadth of the country .

How correct is the claim that Karachi accounts for the major FBR source of revenue of the country and it is not getting its due share in return ?

Is such a claim justified for Karachi to acquire the status of a province ? Needs threadbare and non partisan analysis rather then sensationalism .

Pakistan has 24 Regional Tax Offices and Large Taxpayers Units and 42 Customs Collectorates along the length and breadth of the country . These tax units jurisdiction is not territorial but derived from revenue generation .The Federal Board of Revenue FBR , collects around PKR 11 trillion , with a meagre expenditure . FBR and IRS functions are digitally and Cloud based and audit is being transformed to faceless systems , with little physical interface. Even the gas utility entities like Sui Norther and Sui Southern are not aligned with the provinces jurisdictions.
Without going into any political angle , why the provincial/ administrative units (spending entities) cant be modelled in conformity/ aligned with FBR jurisdiction ?

Mangrove Mafia

Mangrove Mafia LosesOn 18 June 2026, the Honorable Sindh High Court dismissed  petitions filed by the illegal land beneficiaries, declared their allotments void from the very start, and upheld the cancellations of allotments by the authorities . In one of Karachi’s biggest land / estate scam in the early 1990s, almost 800 acres of precious urban state were grabbed through fake “evacuee” claims and forged papers and subsequently transferred into private hands. This illegally encroached State included water installations supplying water to Karachi’s residents and public parks.The illegally encroached land may be including coastal , sandy beachfront , Mangroves and Karachi Port land.  The Sindh High Court told the illegal beneficiaries /buyers that if they were claiming to be cheated they must pursue the sellers who handed them stolen land, not the State. This verdict is a clear warning to land grabbers across the country that stolen state land will be taken back and returned to its rightful owner  being the people of Pakistan. A fitting judicial tribute to World Ocean Conservation Day.

Constructing a Container Ship

National Flag Carrier PNSC vessel  MV Sibi, a conventional bulk carrier after conversion to transport container, was deployed to facilitate Pakistan exporters and importers by providing direct connectivity between the GCC Khor Fakkan Emirates Port and Pakistan during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel successfully completed two inbound/outbound voyages  .During her third voyage to Karachi, carrying 307 containers, she encountered severe weather conditions associated with the Southwest Monsoon. Upon berthing at KICT, it was observed that certain containers stowed in Holds No. 1 and No. 5 had shifted and sustained damage due to the heavy weather. Cargo stowed in Holds No. 2, 3, and 4 remained intact.Such occurrences are common under Monsoon conditions. Hutchison Port Terminal operator KICT successfully discharged all cargo from Holds No. 2, 3, and 4, as well as part-cargo from Hold No. 5. A total of 71 containers remain onboard in Holds No. 1 and No. 5, out of which approximately 25–30 containers are anticipated to have sustained damage as a result of the adverse weather conditions.No containers have been lost overboard and all cargo remains onboard . PNSC is actively coordinating with the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) to shift the vessel to East Wharf or West Wharf for the discharge of the remaining containers. The vessel has not sustained any structural damage and remains seaworthy.The severe weather encountered was beyond the control of the carrier/PNSC. Nevertheless, all possible efforts were undertaken, in coordination with relevant port authorities and stakeholders, to safely discharge the remaining cargo and minimize inconvenience to customers.Pakistan does not have any container ship and pays billions in $ / forex to external shipping lines to transport containers. Independent media sources are reporting that Containers fell down inside the cargo hold due to cell guide failure/ non availability. Furthermore the conversion from bulk ship to container is not easy and cannot be done overnight . At times alternate lashing arrangements need to be deployed to secure , Classification , approved loadline software to calculate stresses in harbour and sea mode , compliance of Solas chapter VI regulation 2 and ISM code on ship and shore. Insurers and P&I Club cover damages only if certain safety parameters are observed. Annual Income tax paid by exporters is PKR 100 billion whereas the annual income tax paid by the salaried class is PKR 600 billion. The question arises what was the need to subsidise exporters and put a ship at risk as the exporters should be competitive and not plead for subsidies. PNSC would have earned more revenues if the ship MV SIBI had been used for bulk cargo operations on more profitable routes rather then subsidising a few dozen exporters.

AI & Digital Technology at Ports

China’s Qingdao Port has initiated an automated mooring system and the port handled a container ship of 16,000 TEU capacity in an unmanned operation which took around 30 seconds. Earlier the time required for mooring was around 30 minutes. Unlike traditional mooring operations no workers were involved .The Shandong Port Group claims that automated mooring will save over 200 hours of mooring time annually and increasing berth productivity by berthing 10 additional ultra-large vessels .

Pakistan Trade Vulnerable due to Strait of Hormuz Conflict ? Exports Plummet

Pakistan’s merchandise exports fell $ 27.9 billion in the current fiscal (11 months) compared with $ 29.5 billion in the corresponding months of last fiscal, as per Pakistan Bureau of Statistics . Trade Deficit widened to $ 34.7 b . Some attribute decline in exports sector due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz which have pushed up shipping costs for exporters and disrupted supply chains . In the fiscal 2022 and 2025 Exports were at $ 39.6 (including Services 7.1 B) and $ 40.7 (including Services 8.4 B) respectively .

Remittances for fiscal 2022 and 2025 were $ 31.3 billion and $ 38.3 B respectively . However the figure of Outward Remittances is not available in the public domain as such sustainability of Remittances remains unclear. Such a significant increase in remittances should have raised Net Foreign Exchange Reserves beyond preceding years , clearly not the case as per official data. Slowdown in business activities in the Gulf countries , due to plunge in hydrocarbon revenues, may adversely impact remittances .

Pakistan’s average IT/ Digital monthly exports remain range bound at $ 250 million.

Liquid Net Foreign Exchange Reserves (Weekly) $ 20 Billion Sep , 2021 , Week 22nd May , 2026 Net Reserves stood at $ 17.1 Billion .

Innovation is needed to Revive the Economy.

AI and Taxation

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , United Arab Emirates and Qatar have procured Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology from the major Digital and AI companies for almost next 10 years.  How will Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) deploy AI in Risk based Audit ? Presently FBR has shared that Sales tax and Income tax returns filing on FBR e portal are facing difficulties

Highs & Low of Pakistan’s Economy – Net Foregn Exchange Reserves

State Bank of Pakistan repaid deposit of US $ 1 billion to Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) UAE on 23 April,2026 . Deposits of $ 2.45 billion repaid this April .Repayment of total deposits of $ 3.45 billion to UAE.

FY 2022 Exports $ 39.6 (including Services 7.1 billion)
FY 2025 Exports $ 40.7 (including Services 8.4 billion)

Remittances (FY 2022) $ 31.3 Billion
Remittances (FY 2025) $ 38.3 Billion
Average IT/ Digital monthly exports are $ 250 million
Imports Goods (FY 2022) $ 84.5 (including Services $ 13.0 billion)
Imports Goods (FY 2025) $ 70.2 (including Services$ 11.1 billion)
Liquid Foreign Exchange Reserves (Weekly)
Gross $ 27.1 (Net $ 20.0) Week Sep , 2021
Gross $ 21.9 (Net $ 16.4) Week 3rd April , 2026
30 April , 2026 Net Reserves $ 15.8 Billion

Carbon / CLIMATE TAX

Carbon / CLIMATE TAX in BUDGET
There must be some reason why , on its territories, the West does not permit or actively discourages coal extraction and generation of coal based electricity , ship recycling , chlor – alkali producing plants , cement industry consuming coal and artisanal gold mining through mercury process . In the name of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Pakistan seems to have become a contamination hotspot .The Carbon Footprint of Electric Vehicles , Windmills and Solar Cells is extremely high. A drain on precious foreign exchange as well. Imports must be discouraged through heavy taxation. Instead of burdening the common man a One Time Carbon / Climate Change Tax must be imposed on Cement , Coal , Chlor -Alkali producing plants which are polluting the atmosphere , massively generate  Carbon and Greenhouse Gases and toxic minerals and chemicals cause severe and chronic diseases amongst infants and pollute the water resources. Obviously the increase in people suffering from disease  will greatly benefit the health and Pharmaceutical industry.

TEXTILE SECTOR PLEADS FOR SUBSIDY

FBR total tax collection around PKR 11 Trillion.

Textile sector export is PKR 9 Trillion yet it pays a paltry amount of around PKR 100 billion as Income tax.

Salaried sector pays PKR 600 billion as tax.

Textile exports are import based,  consume precious foreign exchange and remittance of the Labour class. Moving away from its core business Textile sector is allowed to keep upto 50 % of its Tech / Digital revenues proceeds abroad , without remitting timely which disturbs the net foreign exchange reserves . On top of it is posturing developing cloud digital data centers .

From the year 1995 to the year 2024 the textile exporters were exempt from producing books of accounts to the Federal Board of Revenue (Income Tax authorities) and avoided any forensic audit .

Textile sector asks for more subsidies !!!

FBR Revenue Collection during FY 2024-25  = Rs. 11,744 billion

Direct tax Collection   5,791        billion

Withholding Taxes                       (Direct tax)  3,382        billion
Exports                                          (Withholding tax)  122,271  million
Imports                                           421,766  million
Salaries                                           605,593  million

Source ; FBR year bookhttps://lnkd.in/dkju_fuY

Exports = Rs 9 Trillion / 9,000 billion Income  tax from export  (withholding tax mode) sector minuscule  & highly concessionary tax regime

Admiralty Jurisdiction Subsea Internet Cables

Collision PAPU and NIWA Karachi Port
As per Vessel Finder the vessel MV NIWA a Cable Operator arrived at the port of Karachi, Pakistan (KPT) on May 28. The vessel NIWA (IMO 8819029, MMSI 470773000) is a 35 years old Cable Layer, sailing under the UAE flag.The ship MV PAPU was en route to the port of Jeddah, expected to arrive there on Jun 3 .The vessel PAPU (IMO 9377561, MMSI 636025016) is an 18 year old Container Ship , sailing under the flag of Liberia.Inbound Mv NIWA cable operator vessel collided with out bound vessel Mv PAPU reportedly in the Port Navigational Channel abreast buoy no. 1 . The buoy and vessel Mv NIWA bow were damaged and impact caused a container from MV Pappu to fall overboard. The impact of the collision caused a container from MV Pappu to fall into the sea giving rise to environmental concerns , especially if any oil slick is detected. Mv NIWA inbound vessel was safely berthed by the professionals mariners on KPT Tugs at berth no. 5 whereas MV Pappu is adrift at outer anchorage , a navigational concern. It remains to be seen if the ships will be towed out for repair at shipyards of Oman or scrapped / recycled at Gadani . The satellite tracking data of both ships would be publicly available and the P & I Club and Insurance companies would be investigating to ascertain culpability etc. So far no enquiry findings have been made public.

Africa’s Mineral Wealth

Africa’s vast mineral wealth is at the centre stage of international power competition drawing the USA into a strategic confrontation with China over rare/critical minerals supply chains and infrastructure routes. A US Ivanhoe Atlantic Mining Ventures has been permitted by Liberia to transport iron ore from Guinea.
A United Arab Emirates (UAE) based company Axis International Ltd filed a $ 28.9 billion claim against Guinea at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes after the African country revoked its permit to operate a bauxite mine .
Barrick’s board had raised the possibility of splitting the company’s assets, which could include an outright sale of the Reko Diq mine and the company’s African assets . Although Barrick’s Anti-Bribery and Anti-Corruption statements are available on its website the manner ,duration, mechanism, third party involvement, international due diligence studies and mode of negotiations prior to acquiring the Reko Diq project are not available in the public domain.

Gold & Cyanide

Pakistan , like many countries in Africa is witnessing a surge in artisanal production of placer gold and copper (confused with rare earth elements/minerals) . Cyanide , arsenic and mercury are being used for refining with impunity although is toxic and can be fatal to humans and animals if ingested in sufficient quantity.The greatest environmental threat from cyanide is to aquatic life from intentional or unintentional discharges like floods into surface waters. Water monitoring and water management on mine sites are important and regulations should explicitly limit the frequency and amount of cyanide which may be discharged into the environment.The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) , Food Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and WHO appear to be silent spectators to the massive environmental damage being caused to crops , marine and aquatic species. Recently large quantities of cyanide spilled into the Karasu River in Turkey after a pipe carrying cyanide exploded in a gold mine. Almost 20 cubic meters of toxic solution spilled into the Karasu River, a major environmental disaster.The Karasu river is 450-kilometer-long and a source of the Euphrates. As shared by DW mine operator Anagold Madencilik informed that the cyanide leakage contained 8 kg of cyanide.

Credit / Sources;

http://inkedin.com/in/nadireditorblueconomynewscom

https://www.iea.org/countries/Pakistan/oil

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_neti_dc_nus-npk_mbblpd_m.htm

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/PAK/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/271000

https://www.ocac.org.pk/oil-industry-statistics/

https://www.iea.org/countries/india/oil

https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/India/pdf/India.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/business/indias-august-crude-oil-imports-fall-over-11-month-on-month-2026-09-18/

https://www.commerce.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Comparative-Imports-of-Selected-Commodities-June-2026.pdf